Turkey

Turkey is the sixth biggest economy of the EU. A reminder: according to a report written by Kemal Derviş and some of his colleagues that dates back to 2004, Turkey will be the fifth economy of the EU in 2020.

Its GDP per capita is not at the EU level. Last year it was 13 thousand dollars. But what is important is not the current GDP per capita, but the one of 2023: it will reach 25 thousand dollars (and its GDP will reach 2 trillion dollars). Furtermore, Turkey will be among the 10 world economies.

And as Turkey’s economy has a great potential, its GDP and GDP per capita will keep rising.

I suggest that quite interesting article in which we can note the incredible progress and health of the Turkish economy (there are many useful information about Turkey on that excellent site):

I quote:

Moreover, according to the OECD, Turkey is expected to be the fastest growing economy of the OECD members during 2011-2017, with an annual average growth rate of 6.7 percent.

In 2010 it was 8.9 %.

That analysis is not long. And that site is really interesting and useful.

Now I suggest these 5 short articles published by TRT English that introduce the improvement of the Turkish economy (which takes its roots from political stability):

Turkish Airlines orders 13 airbus jets

Highest building of Turkey & Europe inaugurated

Turkey will spend 27 billion TL for rural development

Europe and Asia connect under Bosphorus

Turkey runs for 2023 goals

Well the exports of Turkey are dramatically increasing. Euractiv Turkey quoted the state minister Zafer Çağlayan who announced that the exports figures of the first quarter of this year reached 31.5 billion dollars, and that the 2011 exports figures will exceed 132 billion dollars.
Mr Çağlayan also stated that these figures are an indicator that the Turkish economy has sound foundations. Lastly, the objective of Turkey is to reach the huge 500 billion dollars exports figure in 2023.

I wish I reminded another revealing article about the Turkish economy:

I quote:

Turkey’s 2010 budget figures announced by Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek impressed the EU.
Turkey has achieved “a much better than expected” budgetary performance in 2010, the European Commission has said in an economic report on candidate and potential candidate countries.

The report that covers 2010’s first 11 months said “Budgetary performance in 2010 in Turkey proved much better than expected particularly with a strong recovery in domestic demand that backed indirect taxes significantly”.
According to the EU Commission data, Turkey’s gross government debt to GDP ratio stands at 43 percent, whereas EU average in gross government debt to GDP ratio reaches as high as 79 percent.
The government debt to GDP ratio which shouldn’t exceed 60 % according to the Maastricht economic criteria are 140.2 percent in Greece, 118.9 percent in Italy, 98.6 percent in Belgium, 97.4 percent in Ireland, 83 percent in France and Portugal each, 77.8 percent in Britain and 75.7 percent in Germany.

Turkey will be economically much more powerful towards 2020-2030.

When Turkey becomes an EU member, it will certainly take advantage of the EU budget. However it will also well and truly contribute to the EU budget. Turkey will be a rich country. That’s a certainty. Towards 2050 – perhaps earlier – it is said that Turkey will be the second economic power of the EU. Thus, Turkey will always have to contribute greatly to the EU budget.

Today, there are in Turkey 3.6 million households – which represent 14 million people – that earn the average income of the EU citizens (25 thousand euros per year). I got that information from the site of the Turkish National Institute of Statistics (I investigated about that subject and analysed meticulously the data of that site for nearly two hours).

Besides, the Turkish population is very young.

For instance Vodafone and Telia-Sonera are very happy about that!

Turkey is an important market for the foreign investors. Many international companies such as Renault or HP decided to invest in Turkey.

Furthermore, the Turkish economy is so deeply rooted to the economy of the EU that when Turkey becomes a member it will immediately be included into the euro zone (but will Turkey agree to enter the euro zone?).

Besides, Turkey is already spending 60 billions euros for the environment chapter of the EU-Turkey negotiations. Hence we can call into question the questions raised regarding money towards Turkey and the cost of its EU membership.

Something else: if the EU hadn’t deserted Turkey in its fight against the PKK terrorism, Turkey would have already developped its east many years ago. And its GDP per capita would already have been close to the one of the EU level. Because if the EU had fought the PKK terrorism, that terrorism would not have cost Turkey 200 billion euros. So that colossal amount of money could have helped Turkey modernize its east many years ago.

But as I wrote in my first article (in French) that was published on september 2009 in Le Monde and one month later here in Blogactiv, the Turkish citizens may vote “No” to the EU membership.

As the Norwegians did twice.

Well as I said, Turkey’s economy is improving at a fast pace, and it has a huge potential. Turkey also has sound oil and gas reserves in the Black sea: 40 billion oil barrels and 4 (now it is estimated at 8!) trillion CM of gas. Thus, Turkey will become much less dependent regarding its huge energy needs (which are said to double within 10 years). Therefore, Turkey will soon not have to pay huge amounts of money for its foreign energy invoices, and that money will be very useful for other purposes.

So, why would the Turkish citizens want to be members and a source of cash for that EU which is dishonest and unfaithful towards their country?

Those in Brussels who support Turkey’s EU membership ought to think about that, and they ought to act in concrete terms instead of repeating We support Turkey.

Best regards,

Cem

PS. I think that the Turkish economy has 4 main ennemies:

1 – Political instability
2 – The PKK terrorism
3 – The earthquakes
4 – The black economy

PPS. I want to quote again here Eric Ellis from the The Age newspaper:

Economically, it seems a no-brainer. The IMF measures G-20 member Turkey as the world’s 17th biggest economy, its $US1 trillion output larger than all but five of the European Union’s 27 member states. Measured by GDP per capita, Turkey is bigger than five-year EU members Bulgaria and Romania and alongside its three former Soviet Baltic states.

Greater Istanbul provides about half of Turkey’s GDP and were it a separate state, its economy would be bigger than that of nine EU members, its GDP per capita up there with Germany and France.

As Asia booms, Turkey’s millenniums-old question might well be answered yet, at Europe’s loss.

In other words:

– given that Turkey is changing very quickly,

– owing to its investments in its east (Attention please: Turkey does not need the EU funds (unlike Greece)) (by the way, the GAP (the Southern Anatolian Project) will create thousands of jobs and it will contribute to the prosperity of eastern Turkey. The PKK is being destroyed, hence less and less investors are afraid of investing in the east of Turkey. A few examples: Avea built a call centre in Gaziantep. Turkcell built a call centre in Diyarbakir. And more recently Vodafone and some other companies too opened some call centres),

– and lastly thanks to many other very probable positive surprises, we can expect a much richer, much better and more harmonious Turkey in 2023 – the centennial of the republic.

Will the EU make an appointment?!!!!

PPPS. Turkey is also very important for the EU because it represents a vital energy corridor. In fact, Turkey is becoming a strategic and crucial bridge between the gas and oil suppliers (of the Caucasus and of the Middle East) and the consumers of the EU.

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