Turkey

Below an excellent analysis written by Mr Ozay Mehmet from Canada which was posted here last month.

“Hello Gorgi, Cem,

Cem’s careful analysis make a lot of common sense…unfortunately common sense is what has consistently been missing in EU discussions of Turkish membership.

At the moment, with dark clouds surrounding EU over the euro/debt crisis, the future looks bleak… so bleak I wonder if the majority of Turks would accept membership if it were suddenly offerred to Ankara. My own sense is that like Norway, they would politely turn it down.

It so happens I am now re-reading Ataturk’s celebrated SPEECH (I recommend it to anyone who wants to learn how the Turkish Republic was created under the most unimaginable set of difficulties). I doubt that Turks would now entrust Turkish sovereignty to a bunch of Euro-crats in Brussels and EU political leaders operating under the existing impossible rules of governance, specifically the veto right of each member. This is a recipe for DO-NOTHING. How on earth can one harmonize fiscal, monetary and investment policies under these rules of governance?

Briefly (and looking back), look at some of the relevant EU Council/Commission blunders:

* Greece has been admitted into E15 while technically it was judged NOT READY;
* It was admitted into the Eurozone on the basis of “doctored” books and statistical lies,
* Divided Cyprus was admitted similarly on GC terms, i.e. by blackmail.
* GCs were rewarded for saying NO to Annan Plan, TCs punished for YES
* EU leaders, first worked so hard for the Annan Plan, then reneged on promises/pledged made to TCs
* Yet, EU keeps on insisting concessions after concession from the Turkish side {in the name of REFORM recalling the 19th century Eastern Question a la Gladstone} to further appease the Greeks, etc.

Under the circumstances, one has to ask what is the net benefit to Turkey of EU membership? Why join a sinking ship?

Especially, when Turkish economy is robust, monetary and fiscal policy management is exemplary, and Turkish entrepreneurs are winning contracts and markets everywhere. By contrast Europe is bogged down in archaic and dysfunctional subsidy programs, labor union laws and uncomptetive Euro.

Where are growth prospects in debt-ridden PIGS? How long can Germany bail out the PIGS who are, each one, a permanent East Germany?

Now, the great French leader looks to China for help. Why should China purchase Eurobonds when ECB is reluctant to do so?

Yet, I want to end on a positive note: Europe needs GROWTH economics, even if risking inflation. Keynesian prescription (a la FDR-style of the 1930s) is the way forward. Under monetarism/rational expectations paradigm, one has to ask: why rely on bankers and auditors to determine “expectations” when they suffer from deep moral failure? It is time to listen to the OCCUPY voices and bail out the unemployed, rather than the banks!

As regards EU-Turkey relations, frankly EU should court Turkey, using maximum persuasion and incentives for membership just to energize itself and become a credible player on the world stage, especially vis-a-vis the Muslim world.

Ozay

Ozay Mehmet, Ph.D (Toronto),
Professor Emeritus, Int. Aff/Econ., Carleton University,
Ottawa, Ont., CANADA”

Ozay’s analysis is rich hence I could have given some other titles to that post such as:

“Why join a sinking ship?”

“Turks may not entrust Turkish sovereignty to a bunch of Euro-crats in Brussels”

“A recipe for DO-NOTHING”

“Keynesian prescription is the way forward”

or:

“Bail out the unemployed, rather than the banks!”

Very well said!

Congratulations Ozay.

Yours faithfully,

Cem

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